Federal election 2025 live: Goldstein on knife edge as 16 seats still in doubt; Murray Watt says Labor not given credit for ‘ambitious’ agenda
Size of Labor majority remains unclear, with 16 seats still in doubt
Josh Butler
Labor has won the election, but the size of its majority in the House of Representatives remains unclear.
There are a number of seats still to be decided and the counts are progressing slowly.
The ABC’s election results show 16 seats are still in doubt.
The Australian Electoral Commission hasn’t officially declared any seats yet, but says Labor is leading in 86, the Coalition leading in 40, independents in 11, Bob Katter in his seat and Rebekha Sharkie in hers; another two seats are too close to attribute, and in nine seats, the two-candidate-preferred count is still being calculated.
The AEC also says 22 seats are “close”.
If you’re a political tragic (like us) and you’ve been watching the results tick over, you might have seen some of the numbers jump around wildly. In some of the seats, that’s because the AEC has “realigned” the two-party vote, after an unexpected challenger became one of the two most popular candidates, meaning the AEC is having to redo its calculations about how to allocate preferences.
Some of the closest seats include Longman, Goldstein and Bullwinkel, where the vote is currently 50.05 to 49.95, or separated by about 100 votes.
Liberal Tim Wilson is currently 95 votes behind the independent Zoe Daniel in Goldstein; Labor’s Trish Cook leads the Liberals by 85 votes in the new WA seat of Bullwinkel; and LNP’s Terry Young is ahead of Labor in Longman by 102 votes.
It might be some time before we get those results, as well as in the seats of Bradfield, Kooyong and Wills.
Key events
Watt says Labor worked hard for years to stage Queensland comeback
Watt says Labor worked hard on campaigning in Queensland “for some time” to stage a comeback in his home state.
Labor has picked up a slew of seats in Queensland, including Petrie north of Brisbane and Leichhardt, where it defeated the Liberal National Party.
Labor’s Ali France also won Liberal leader Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, becoming the first person to unseat a federal opposition leader at an election.
Labor also won back two Brisbane seats that it lost to the Greens in 2022 election.
Speaking on the ABC’s Afternoon Briefing, Watt acknowledged 2022 had not been a good year for Labor in Queensland and said the candidates, sitting MPs and the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, had all put in significant “time and effort” to reverse that trend.
He said:
If you go back to the 2019 election federally we got thumped in Queensland, lost a lot of seats, a very low primary vote, lost a second Senate seat for the first time in decades.
[We] went back further in the last election in 2022 and recognised we needed to make a bigger contribution … and frankly to retain government federally we have needed to win seats in Queensland so we have been applying ourselves for some time.
I looked back at my Facebook posts yesterday and it was two years ago almost to the day we began campaigning in some of the Greens held seats in Queensland.
It has taken a lot of hard work [and it] has not been an overnight success.
Watt also said people in Queensland could “differentiate between state and federal issues”, given the Coalition won the most recent state election off Labor.
Labor not given credit for ambition of election agenda – Watt
Labor senator Murray Watt has denied his party has not been ambitious and says the re-elected Albanese government intends “to live up to” its campaign promises.
Watt, a cabinet minister who most recently held the employment and workplace relations portfolios, has been interviewed on ABC’s Afternoon Briefing program.
The Queensland senator denied the Albanese government had not been ambitious in its first term, pointing to wages growth:
I know there is commentary around we can now be ambitious and we have not been ambitious before, and I think is completely wrong.
I think the agenda we took to the election was much more ambitious than it is given credit for.
The idea we can get back to a situation in Australia where 90% of Australians can get a bulk-billed GP appointment is huge in terms of cost of living.
It may not be exciting in terms of headlines but it makes a huge difference to people’s lives, so [that is] what we will focus on.
Benita Kolovos
Premier maintains Loop a decisive issue for Labor in Melbourne
While Allan has credited the Suburban Rail Loop with Labor’s federal election gains in Melbourne’s east, some within her own party aren’t convinced.
Labor sources told Guardian Australia the project wasn’t a decisive issue for voters, arguing people could clearly distinguish between state and federal responsibilities.
But Allan on Monday rejected that suggestion:
If you speak to locals, if you spend any time out and about on the ground in local communities, the Suburban Rail Loop was being talked about. It was being talked about on doors. It was being talked about on the streets … It was understood there was a Labor government and a Labor team that were backing the Suburban Rail Loop and a Liberal outfit that wanted to cut it.
Benita Kolovos
Allan seizes on Labor’s success in Melbourne’s east to propel Suburban Rail Loop
The Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan, has used Labor’s strong showing in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs at the federal election to push forward the state’s signature transport project, the Suburban Rail Loop.
Labor not only held Aston but also took Deakin and Menzies off the Liberals on Saturday – with the three electorates all along the proposed 90km underground train line from Cheltenham to Werribee.
Allan has described the result as proof of strong support for the rail project and announced on Monday that major construction has now begun at the Clarinda worksite, with tunnelling set to start next year.
Four tunnel boring machines will be used – two heading toward Glen Waverley and two toward Cheltenham. Excavation is also halfway complete at a second site in Burwood, where another machine will be installed to begin tunnelling westward.
The premier said more than 3,000 workers are already on the job, with trains expected to run by 2035.
Allan told reporters:
If you live in this community, like so many others, you understand that as you welcome more people who live in your community … [you have] got to get in and invest in big rail projects like this one that absolutely shifts more people on to rail, just like what the Metro Tunnel is going to do later this year when it opens.
Size of Labor majority remains unclear, with 16 seats still in doubt
Josh Butler
Labor has won the election, but the size of its majority in the House of Representatives remains unclear.
There are a number of seats still to be decided and the counts are progressing slowly.
The ABC’s election results show 16 seats are still in doubt.
The Australian Electoral Commission hasn’t officially declared any seats yet, but says Labor is leading in 86, the Coalition leading in 40, independents in 11, Bob Katter in his seat and Rebekha Sharkie in hers; another two seats are too close to attribute, and in nine seats, the two-candidate-preferred count is still being calculated.
The AEC also says 22 seats are “close”.
If you’re a political tragic (like us) and you’ve been watching the results tick over, you might have seen some of the numbers jump around wildly. In some of the seats, that’s because the AEC has “realigned” the two-party vote, after an unexpected challenger became one of the two most popular candidates, meaning the AEC is having to redo its calculations about how to allocate preferences.
Some of the closest seats include Longman, Goldstein and Bullwinkel, where the vote is currently 50.05 to 49.95, or separated by about 100 votes.
Liberal Tim Wilson is currently 95 votes behind the independent Zoe Daniel in Goldstein; Labor’s Trish Cook leads the Liberals by 85 votes in the new WA seat of Bullwinkel; and LNP’s Terry Young is ahead of Labor in Longman by 102 votes.
It might be some time before we get those results, as well as in the seats of Bradfield, Kooyong and Wills.
Albanese has ‘very warm’ conversation with Trump
Earlier today, Anthony Albanese said he had a “very warm” conversation with the US president, Donald Trump, about tariffs and Aukus following Labor’s election win.
Albanese also foreshadowed an in-person meeting with Trump.
Trump, meanwhile, told reporters in the US that he was “very friendly with” Albanese and said he had “no idea” who Peter Dutton was.
Our multimedia team has prepared this clip of Trump’s full remarks:
Catie McLeod
Hi. I hope you’ve had a good day so far. I’ll be with you on the blog until this evening.
Stephanie Convery
That’s all from me today. I’m handing over to my esteemed colleague Catie McLeod now, who’ll take you through the rest of the afternoon’s news.
Earlier, we brought you comments from the prime minister discussing his conversation with Donald Trump. Here’s footage of that press conference.
Caitlin Cassidy
Education union calls on government to fix teacher shortages
The Australian Education Union has congratulated the Albanese government on its “historic election result”, while cautioning there is “more to do” to resolve teacher workforce shortages and invest in public education.
The AEU ran a For Every Child campaign in the lead-up to the election, urging voters to back Labor as a result of its commitment to fully fund public schools.
Its federal president, Correna Haythorpe, said Anthony Albanese’s “no one held back, no one left behind” messaging “captures the very essence of public education and reflects what teachers and education support staff work for every day”:
We acknowledge the significant steps the Albanese government has already taken to address funding inequality in public education and to support Australia’s teachers.
But there is still work to do to resolve Australia’s teaching workforce shortages and to invest in providing high quality teaching and learning facilities for public education.
Meanwhile, Independent Schools Australia, the peak body for the sector, said the election result offered Labor a clear mandate, as well as a clear responsibility.
The body’s chief executive, Graham Catt, said its School Choice Counts election campaign – rolled out in the seats of Melbourne, Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith, where the Greens were hoping to hold or pick up seats – demonstrated independent school families were “not a political afterthought”:
They are taxpayers, voters and active members of their communities –and their voices were heard. This is just the beginning of a new movement for fairness, choice and respect in school education. The message is clear: Australians don’t want the blame game. They want a fair go for every student, in every school and their families.
Caitlin Cassidy
University groups urge PM to address inequitable degree fees
Higher education bodies have congratulated Anthony Albanese on regaining office while urging Labor to use its second term to urgently address the inequitable pricing of degrees resulting from the job-ready graduates (JRG) scheme.
The scheme, introduced by the Morrison government, reduced the overall government contribution to degrees and increased fees for some courses, including humanities, to fund cuts incentivising students to study teaching, nursing, maths, science and engineering.
Luke Sheehy, the chief executive of Universities Australia, the peak body for the sector, said the government had made “good progress” on the Universities Accord’s recommendations, commissioned and handed down in Labor’s first term.
But we must now focus on replacing the job-ready graduates package and funding university research properly.
Sheehy said universities also needed clarity around the commonwealth’s plan for international students after its proposed cap was voted down, adding the sector needed “certainty and stability”.
The Innovative Research Universities (IRU), which represents seven universities focused on equity, said it strongly supported the Albanese government’s increased investment in public education and needs-based funding in higher education. But it said an “urgent priority” must be reform of the JRG scheme.
The IRU has prepared evidence-based modelling of options for JRG reform and we are ready to work with government to make sure that the cost of higher education is not turning students away.
The Australian Technology Network of Universities (ATN), which represents six universities known for their focus on technology and innovation, said it was committed to collaborating on key Labor priorities, including diversifying the student body and embracing new opportunities in the Asia-Pacific.
Update on the neck-and-neck contests
More on the seats that were too close to call this morning:
There are just 104 votes between the frontrunners in the Queensland seat of Longman: Labor’s Rhiannyn Douglas and MP Terry Young are still battling it out. Douglas was leading this morning but Young has taken over in the hours since. There are 7,515 pre-poll and postal vote envelopes yet to be processed.
Still in Queensland, and in Ryan, Greens MP Elizabeth Watson-Brown, the Coalition’s Maggie Forrest and Labor’s Rebecca Hack are all still in the running for the seat. Forrest is ahead on first preference votes but only 799 votes separate Watson-Brown and Hack in second and third place at the moment. The candidate who winds up third, and whose preferences will then flow upward, will determine the winner.
In Fremantle, which has been one of Labor’s safest seats, MP Josh Wilson is under threat from independent Kate Hulett, who the AEC says is currently 541 votes ahead.
And in Bean in the ACT, independent Jessie Price is just 157 votes behind incumbent Labor MP David Smith. Smith previously held the seat by more than 12%.
Predicted: the poll winners in some tight races
Nick Evershed
With counting resumed today, including a start on some of the new two-candidate-preferred counts, we’re making some seat projection calls on a few electorates that looked tricky on the weekend:
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Cowper – Nationals to retain the seat
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Fadden – LNP to retain the seat
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La Trobe – Liberals to retain the seat
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Fowler – Dai Le to retain the seat
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Curtin – Kate Chaney to retain the seat
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Griffith – ALP to win from Greens
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Brisbane – ALP to win from Greens
In Griffith and Brisbane, the new two-candidate-preferred count has begun today. In Brisbane, rather than Greens and LNP in the final two, as it was in 2022, it will be Labor v LNP, which Labor should win handily on Greens voter preferences.
In Griffith, the final two are Labor and Greens, rather than Greens and LNP as in 2022, and Labor should win over Greens on LNP voter preferences.
Luca Ittimani
Westpac chief says Labor win ‘very positive’ for Australia
Labor’s election victory offers “an enormous positive for the country”, providing consistency and certainty for businesses and lenders, the Westpac chief executive, Anthony Miller, has said.
The continuity of re-election stood in contrast to the uncertainty and volatility faced by other countries, Miller told investors and media after releasing Westpac’s half-yearly report. He said:
That certainty that the Labor party has provided over the last couple of years in government, and now re-elected, is an incredibly powerful outcome and a very positive one for the country …
[It] puts us in a very good position globally to attract capital and talent to this country. And so I think consistency and certainty and just getting things done methodically, as opposed to boldly going in different and new directions, is something to be thoughtful about.
Miller said the continuity would give the government more opportunities to improve productivity, pointing to the treasurer Jim Chalmers’ comments about focusing on productivity reform in the second term.
Miller flagged the energy transition, critical minerals and rare earths, and expanded defence forces including Aukus as potential drivers of economic growth in Labor’s second term.
There are so many opportunities for them that I think it’s a very positive outlook for the next few years, notwithstanding the global uncertainty that we’re operating in.
Dan Jervis-Bardy
Labor set to increase Senate seats
Labor is expected to further grow its numbers in the Senate, allowing it to pass legislation with only the support of the Greens in a power shift that could sideline previously influential crossbenchers such as David Pocock.
The Coalition’s election disaster looks likely to claim another casualty, with the Nationals’ deputy leader, Perin Davey, poised to lose her New South Wales Senate seat.
Despite the Greens losing two of their four seats in the lower house, the party leader, Adam Bandt, said the Senate results should encourage Labor to pursue a bolder, more progressive policy agenda in its second term, including expanding Medicare, free childcare and banning new fossil fuel projects.
Read the full story here:
Linda Reynolds blames Liberals’ male dominance for poll failure and backs Ley to lead
Outgoing Liberal senator Linda Reynolds has thrown her support behind a potential leadership tilt by the current deputy leader, Sussan Ley, while saying the party’s election campaign had been “a comprehensive failure”.
She told ABC Perth radio:
You can see through successive reviews in federal and state in terms of where we have taken the wrong turn, but we haven’t comprehensively understood those lessons and we certainly haven’t implemented the reforms that are needed. It was a comprehensive failure.
She partly attributed the failure of the party to speak to voters to its male dominance, and failure to act on the findings of reviews that recommended changes that would increase the involvement of women in the party.
Reynolds said:
Ten years ago I was part of a review into gender … and we recommended targets and how to get there without quotas. That’s been the Liberal party policy for 10 years but it’s just sat on a shelf. We do have to have the hard conversations now about how we become more gender-balanced but also a broader diversity.
There was also a strong religious right flank of the party in WA, Reynolds said, which didn’t resonate with or represent mainstream Australia.
Reynolds said she would support the current deputy leader, Sussan Ley, to replace Peter Dutton as leader, if Ley should nominate, saying she would be “a great and a very healing and receptive leader for our party”.
Benita Kolovos
Liberal candidate says late swing to her party in Kooyong
Sticking with the battle for the Victorian seat of Kooyong, Guardian Australia has seen an email from the Liberal candidate, Amelia Hamer, to her supporters on Sunday night in which she says there has been a late swing towards the party in the seat.
In the email, she says:
Last night was not the result we had hoped for the Coalition. We had an average 3% swing against us across the country. But thanks to all your hard work, we managed to fight the national swing. It is now clear there will be a swing towards us in Kooyong. There are only a small handful of seats nationwide where this is the case. Currently the swing to us in Kooyong is +1.5% and we have 49% of the vote. That is a direct result of your efforts over the past year.
She says there are still 22,000 votes to be counted in the electorate and the Liberals “need just 943 extra votes to win”.
Most of the uncounted votes are postal votes. They are coming in very strongly in our favour. If these postal votes continue on their current TPP [two-party-preferred] trajectory of 62–38, we can win this seat. That is not blind hope – that’s the raw numbers.
Hamer also apologised for missing any supporters at her election night event at the Tower in Hawthorn. The Age has reported she didn’t attend the party until 11pm and hasn’t spoken publicly since election night.
