Is the Democratic Republic of the Congo next for Trump?
US President Donald Trump made it clear he wanted to strike a deal with Ukraine on rare earth minerals.
But after negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy stagnated he is looking at another war-torn nation facing an invader as another option: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
The rebel group known as M23 has been fighting in the eastern part of the African nation for more than a decade. Since the beginning of this year, they’ve staged a remarkable resurgence.
First the M23 captured Goma, the biggest city in the DRC’s mineral-rich North Kivu Province. Then they overran government troops and peacekeepers defending Bukavu, the capital of neighbouring South Kivu.
“There’s an economic reason why they’re in this region. This is a region that is very rich in many of the world’s rare earths and very valuable minerals,” said Yinka Adegoke, Africa editor of the Semafor website.
The DRC’s mines churn out minerals that are crucial for electric vehicles and other products.
“It’s very rich in coltan, which … we find in our smartphones. Very rich in cobalt, which is just really valuable to … the future of electric vehicles, and all the rest of it in the batteries. So, there’s no doubt this is [a] very rich region,” Mr Degrade said.
The M23 or the March 23 Movement originated in the DRC. They are predominantly Tutsi, the same ethnic group that dominates the government in neighbouring Rwanda.
On Tuesday the DRC’s President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame called for a ceasefire after talks in Qatar, but it is unclear how the rebels will respond.
And there are multiple reports that after an appeal from the DRC, Trump will appoint Massad Boulos, the father-in-law of his daughter Tiffany, as a peace envoy.
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The DRC’s minerals are considered essential for high-tech products. Last week, a US State Department spokesperson told Reuters that the Congo held “a significant share of the world’s critical minerals required for advanced technologies”.
But any deal would have to pay dividends for the US.
“A big part of that is also they have an eye on the minerals,” Mr Adegoke said.
“[The US] are quite clear that they want a more transactional relationship. And that kind of transaction relationship, as you saw with the kind of Ukraine discussions, is ‘OK, we’ll help you out here. What’s in it for us?'”
The international cobalt wars
Mr Adegoke says the US is competing with China, which controls 80 per cent of cobalt extraction in the DRC.
“China is the dominant player in extracting these minerals in Congo,” he said.
For decades, China has focused on expanding its economic and military influence in Africa. The Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College estimates Beijing has spent $240 billion in sub-Saharan Africa since the early 2000’s, “making China a legitimate alternative to Western financing in the realm of developmental and commercial infrastructure.”
For the US, brokering a peace deal would mean access to Congo’s valuable minerals. And Mr Adegoke said M23 will be looking to keep control of some of the mines in its territory.
“I think the end game, from what we’ve been hearing, is to work out some sort of deal where they [M23] get to keep some parts. They get to keep control of some of these minerals in certain … parts of the country,” he told 7.30.
The Rwanda question
There have long been allegations Rwanda provides M23 with vital support.
At first glance, their success seems unlikely. Rwanda is a fraction of the DRC’s size, and its population of 111 million is nearly eight times larger.
Rwanda, a country ravaged by an anti-Tutsi genocide 30 years ago, has always denied any links to M23 but the US and the United Nations say there is a clear connection.
“M23’s military capability really is Rwanda’s military capability,” said Stephanie Wolters from the South African Institute of International Affairs.
“Without the Rwandan Defence Force’s support to the M23, that movement would not have been able to achieve even a fraction of what it has achieved.”
The Congolese government says more than 8,000 people died when M23 captured the major cities of Goma and Bukavu. Nearly 80,000 refugees have spilled over the DRC’s borders seeking safety.
In the recent offensive, large numbers of DRC troops surrendered. Others have been accused of desertion.
“The Congolese army … has very rarely been able to defend the national interest,” said Ms Wolters.
She said the DRC’s army struggles with corrupt commanders and has long been accused of neglecting its troops.
“You have Congolese soldiers who are being paid $100 a month to go and put their lives on the line for a country that doesn’t respect them enough to provide them with even basic training or basic equipment.”
Dozens of countries take part in peacekeeping in the Congo as part of the UN’s MONUSCO mission.
Last week South Africa and other countries announced a separate force deployed in the east of the DRC to fight rebel groups would be withdrawn.
Fourteen South African soldiers died fighting M23 as the rebels advanced in January. Ms Wolters says President Cyril Ramaphosa has been under mounting pressure over the deployment.
“[He] hasn’t really provided a very convincing answer as to why South African lives are being put on the line and why South African money is being spent,” she told 7.30.
With the multinational force opposing rebels in the east of the DRC disbanding, there is one less barrier to M23 capturing more territory and more valuable mines.
Tens of billions of dollars are at stake. And once again, the Congo’s vast mineral wealth appears to be not a blessing — but a curse.
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